Kesenjangan Konversi Pertumbuhan menjadi Kesejahteraan di Indonesia: Refleksi Menjelang 81 Tahun Kemerdekaan dan Implikasi bagi Pengembangan Ekonomi Syariah

Abstract

Approaching the 81st anniversary of independence, Indonesia's expanding economic capacity needs to be assessed by its ability to generate broadly shared welfare. This study provides a historical-comparative assessment of welfare change and develops a descriptive Welfare Conversion Gap diagnostic, defined as a condition in which output growth is not fully transmitted into poverty reduction, narrower inequality, stronger human capabilities, and wider productive participation. The study uses secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, the Indonesian Waqf Board, BAZNAS, and academic literature. Quantitative series are used only when methodologically comparable: 1945–1965 is treated as historical context, while quantitative benchmarks use official poverty data since 1976, modern human-development series, and contemporary indicators through August 2026. The findings show substantial long-run progress in poverty reduction and human development, yet welfare conversion remains incomplete. Poverty declined to 8.07% in March 2026, while the Gini ratio rose from 0.363 in September 2025 to 0.368; the rural–urban poverty gap remained 4.33 percentage points. MSMEs remain the backbone of the people's economy, but Sharia financial inclusion was only 13.41%. The study proposes a Welfare Conversion Gap Diagnostic and an Islamic People's Economy Welfare Framework (IPEWF) integrating human capability, productive people's economy, Islamic commercial finance, and Islamic social finance. The framework is conceptual-diagnostic rather than an empirically estimated causal model.